Dynamics of Future Ecosystem Health in the Arctic:
An Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling Approach
The Arctic's ecosystem is changing (IIGGP, 2020). With its uncovered exploitable resources and the possibility of becoming an alternative passageway for international shipping, this geographical area is prey to states that intend to dominate these resources and trading routes. In turn, it has given rise to a complex situation, and the risks – be it technical, environmental, security, or operational – all need to be addressed. With this in mind, the purpose of this work is first to develop an exploratory System Dynamics model that is based on a holistic view of the interests of all the stakeholders, both human and natural, to provide foresight into the future dynamics that allow policymakers to manage the region's environmental quality, culture, security, and economic development.